African Cup Of Nations – Update 1

Tunisia with a huge win

We are through 1 round of the Group Stage of the African Cup of Nations 2013.  While the tournament has already seen its fair share of draws, it certainly hasn’t been lacking in excitement.  Whether it be a last minute goal from Tunisia or Burkina Faso, or a kung fu kick by the Ethiopian keeper, this tournament is off to a great start.  Even better is that all the games are streamed in HD on WatchESPN.com.

I projected the tournament last week, and I want to revisit the projections to include results that have already occurred.

Rank Team Predictor Group Points Projected Finish
60 Angola 94.75 A 1 5 1
82 Morocco 94.24 A 1 5 2
67 South Africa 94.63 A 1 3 3
102 Cape Verde Islands 93.60 A 1 1 4
39 Ghana 95.70 B 1 7 1
55 Mali 95.08 B 3 6 2
99 Congo DR 93.65 B 1 4 3
150 Niger 92.28 B 0 0 4
68 Nigeria 94.59 C 1 5 1
80 Zambia 94.30 C 1 5 2
119 Burkina Faso 93.07 C 1 4 3
139 Ethiopia 92.52 C 1 1 4
10 Cote d’Ivoire 97.74 D 3 9 1
48 Tunisia 95.32 D 3 6 2
45 Algeria 95.40 D 0 3 3
120 Togo 93.07 D 0 0 4

 

Given these projected standings, here is what the knockout stage would look like:

 

afcon1

 

 

The three teams I liked at the start are still projected to be on the same side of the bracket, but that could easily change.  The odds are decreasing, but I still think there is value in Mali and Angola.  If Mali can draw with Ghana on Thursday, they should be able to avoid Ivory Coast until the finals.

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