African Cup of Nations – Update 2

Cape Verde With a Stunner

Although this post is a little late, I wanted to give one final Group Stage update on the African Cup of Nations.  Cape Verde came through with a stoppage time goal and they have advanced to the quarterfinals.  Not a whole lot has changed in the 2nd round, but there are sure to be some fireworks before this thing is done.  Here are the current projections for the group stage with only 6 games remaining.

Rank Team Predictor Group Points Proj Rank
63 South Africa 94.76 A 5 5 1
90 Cape Verde Islands 93.97 A 5 5 2
86 Angola 94.18 A 2 2 3
88 Morocco 94.09 A 2 2 4
39 Ghana 95.76 B 4 7 1
61 Mali 94.79 B 3 6 2
105 Congo DR 93.39 B 2 4 3
149 Niger 92.33 B 1 0 4
73 Nigeria 94.50 C 2 5 1
87 Zambia 94.10 C 2 5 2
113 Burkina Faso 93.17 C 4 4 3
148 Ethiopia 92.37 C 1 1 4
10 Cote d’Ivoire 97.82 D 6 9 1
49 Tunisia 95.22 D 3 6 2
106 Togo 93.39 D 3 3 3
57 Algeria 94.96 D 0 0 4

While we expected things to be very tight in Group A, the top 2 in the other 3 groups remains exactly as projected.  Here is what we have:

afcon3

As stated previous, Ivory Coast is still the favorite to win it all.  Unfortunately they are now down to +125 to win the whole tournament.  Unfortunately for Mali, at this point it looks like they will be unable to avoid Ivory Coast’s side of the bracket.  It is a daunting task, and at +1400 their odds are worse than before the tournament despite probably a tougher road.  I wouldn’t grab them anymore.

At this point I am looking to the other side of the bracket.  Ghana should defeat Niger and draw Cape Verde, which is a great matchup.  Ghana is currently 2nd favorite to win the tournament at +550.  Before the tournament they were +650, but they are a virtual certainty to make the semis now.  Another team to look at might be Tunisia at +2400, but I can’t trust that squad.  It’s looking more and more like an Ivory Coast-Ghana final.  At this point, I’d probably grab some Ghana to pair with my +180 Ivory Coast.  You should be able to do very well with that combination.

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