Month: January 2016

Debuting the Home Court Advantage Rankings

utah

The advantage of playing at home is evident in every sport. Teams are used to their surroundings. The fans are going crazy with support for the home side. It’s a real phenomenon. Often teams claim that they have the BEST home advantage in not just their respective sport, but all of sports.

When it comes to college basketball, teams like Duke and Kansas always are at the top of the list when people think of best home court advantages. But how can we truly know which is best? Luckily, Crotistics has taken a stab at mathematically calculating the best home court advantages.

 

FOR THE LATEST, UPDATED RANKINGS, CLICK HERE

 

Methodology

It has been frequently observed over a number of years by multiple sources that home court advantage in college basketball is worth approximately 3.5 points. To determine the best home court advantage, we’d want to know which teams exceeded that expectation by the most amount of points. Of course, you can’t simply look at who has the greatest margin of victory at home. Opposition must be accounted for.

For example, let’s say Kansas is at home against Texas. At present, we rank Kansas 10 points better than Texas. We’d expect Kansas to win by 13.5 at home. The true margin of victory minus 13.5 is the actual effect of home court advantage. Looking at the average of all games versus expectation produces a home advantage rating.

We also looked at multiple years. As a number of teams play 10-15 games at home in a given year, we expanded the sample to the past 3 years to get more reliable data.

 

Results

Many of the same teams continue to pop up as exceeding expectation year after year. Largely, many of the teams you’d expect to appear near the top of the list do so. Duke, Indiana, Louisville, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Florida, Wichita St., and UCONN all appear in the Top 25. But Kansas clocks in only at #40. VCU is all the way down at #60. Wisconsin is #69. San Diego St. is #84. North Carolina is #95.

One thing that stands out is that there aren’t many teams from the major conferences low on the list. In fact, just a single team from a major conference actually has a negative value against expectation. That team is St. John’s, who splits its games in 2 “home” locations. This makes sense. Big schools tend to draw bigger crowds, which can have a greater impact on the result of the game.

8 schools have an impact greater than 2 points, which means that at home against an equivalent opponent, the team would be favored by 5.5 points or more, instead of the traditional 3.5 points.

 

Top 10

Here are the teams with the BEST home court advantage in college basketball. The “Home Court Advantage” page at the top will be updated throughout the season.

# TEAM TOTAL
1 Utah 2.46
2 Baylor 2.33
3 Duke 2.28
4 Indiana 2.21
5 Arkansas 2.19
6 West Virginia 2.13
7 Alabama A&M 2.06
8 Louisville 2.04
9 Arizona 1.93
10 Villanova 1.92

Utah is well ahead of every other team in college basketball in terms of home court advantage. They’ve consistently been more than 2 points better than expectation year after year. Despite what anyone may claim or have you believe, the Utah Utes have the best home court advantage in college basketball.

Now, let’s be clear. This is not the best environment. Not the greatest tradition. Not the loudest. This is a measure of how much additional advantage teams gain by playing at home. Utah is undefeated at home this season. They were 15-1 at home last season. They were 16-2 at home the previous season. 2 of those 3 losses came to amazing Arizona teams.

Here’s a great article from last season about Utah’s home court advantage. But when people think about who has the best, Utah is not a name that frequently comes to mind.

 

Baylor also ranks very highly in terms of home court advantage. Baylor is 28-2 in their last 30 home games. That’s awful impressive. It’s often some of the other teams in the Big 12 that come to mind, but Baylor stands out.

Yes, it’s true that Duke and Indiana are some of the craziest places to play. And the results show. Indiana had a bit of a down year last year, but they’re #3 overall in the current season and #4 overall in the past 3 seasons.

And how about Alabama A&M sneaking into the top 10. I don’t think anyone’s ever said that school has a powerhouse home court until right now! And year over year, they’ve consistently exceeded expectation. They may not be a great team, but they make you work for it in their building.

 

There’s also only a single team in the nation that has been more than a full point worse than expectation each of the last three years. That honor belongs to UT Rio Grande Valley (formerly UT Pan American). Perhaps they thought changing the school name would remove them from the hall of shame, but it did not.

And St. Peter’s may have had only 6,181 in attendance, for the entire year, but the people who show up are doing something right.

 

Full List

Here’s the full list of best home court advantages as of this posting. This will be updated on the page at the top of the article.

# TEAM TOTAL
1 Utah 2.46
2 Baylor 2.33
3 Duke 2.28
4 Indiana 2.21
5 Arkansas 2.19
6 West Virginia 2.13
7 Alabama A&M 2.06
8 Louisville 2.04
9 Arizona 1.93
10 Villanova 1.92
11 Portland 1.88
12 Gonzaga 1.83
13 Iowa 1.78
14 Louisiana-Lafayette 1.76
15 Kentucky 1.76
16 George Washington 1.69
17 Florida 1.67
18 UC Riverside 1.65
19 Wichita St. 1.64
20 Old Dominion 1.59
21 Connecticut 1.57
22 St. Peter’s 1.57
23 California 1.54
24 Tulsa 1.54
25 UCLA 1.53
26 Vanderbilt 1.51
27 Arizona St. 1.51
28 Memphis 1.48
29 TCU 1.47
30 Minnesota 1.47
31 Northern Kentucky 1.46
32 New Mexico St. 1.45
33 Iowa St. 1.45
34 Cincinnati 1.44
35 Clemson 1.43
36 North Dakota St. 1.43
37 Michigan 1.42
38 Nebraska 1.39
39 Virginia Tech 1.38
40 Kansas 1.37
41 Texas 1.37
42 Saint Mary’s 1.37
43 South Dakota St. 1.36
44 Texas A&M 1.36
45 Colorado 1.36
46 Louisiana Tech 1.34
47 Xavier 1.34
48 Oregon St. 1.31
49 Montana 1.30
50 Ohio St. 1.27
51 Kansas St. 1.26
52 Marshall 1.26
53 Jackson St. 1.26
54 South Carolina 1.26
55 Murray St. 1.25
56 Creighton 1.23
57 Rhode Island 1.21
58 Oklahoma 1.21
59 Oregon 1.20
60 VCU 1.19
61 Stanford 1.17
62 Notre Dame 1.17
63 Illinois 1.15
64 Texas Southern 1.15
65 Hawaii 1.14
66 Missouri 1.13
67 Eastern Michigan 1.10
68 Houston 1.10
69 Wisconsin 1.08
70 Northern Iowa 1.07
71 SMU 1.06
72 Missouri St. 1.03
73 BYU 1.03
74 Mercer 1.03
75 Middle Tennessee 1.02
76 Vermont 1.02
77 Boston College 1.01
78 Virginia 1.01
79 Wyoming 0.96
80 New Mexico 0.96
81 Washington St. 0.95
82 Long Beach St. 0.93
83 Georgetown 0.93
84 San Diego St. 0.93
85 Michigan St. 0.93
86 Brown 0.92
87 Fordham 0.91
88 Fresno St. 0.90
89 Howard 0.90
90 Davidson 0.90
91 Tennessee Tech 0.89
92 Richmond 0.89
93 Detroit 0.88
94 LSU 0.88
95 North Carolina 0.88
96 East Carolina 0.88
97 Syracuse 0.87
98 Pittsburgh 0.86
99 Boise St. 0.86
100 Purdue 0.85
101 Auburn 0.85
102 Georgia St. 0.85
103 Ohio 0.84
104 Mount St. Mary’s 0.84
105 USC 0.83
106 SIU Edwardsville 0.83
107 Toledo 0.83
108 Savannah St. 0.82
109 UAB 0.81
110 Dayton 0.81
111 Marquette 0.81
112 Drake 0.80
113 UNLV 0.79
114 Western Illinois 0.79
115 Iona 0.78
116 Butler 0.78
117 Washington 0.78
118 Georgia Southern 0.76
119 Louisiana-Monroe 0.76
120 Florida St. 0.76
121 Columbia 0.75
122 Eastern Kentucky 0.75
123 Illinois St. 0.75
124 Bradley 0.75
125 Florida Gulf Coast 0.75
126 Cal St. Fullerton 0.74
127 NC Central 0.72
128 Wright St. 0.72
129 Holy Cross 0.71
130 UNC Asheville 0.70
131 Quinnipiac 0.69
132 San Francisco 0.69
133 Princeton 0.69
134 Cal Poly 0.69
135 North Florida 0.68
136 Seattle 0.67
137 Mississippi St. 0.66
138 Georgia 0.66
139 Tennessee 0.66
140 Yale 0.66
141 UMKC 0.64
142 Oral Roberts 0.63
143 McNeese St. 0.63
144 Rutgers 0.63
145 Duquesne 0.62
146 Southern Illinois 0.62
147 Seton Hall 0.61
148 UCF 0.61
149 Maryland 0.60
150 Northern Colorado 0.59
151 Alabama 0.58
152 Georgia Tech 0.56
153 Ball St. 0.56
154 Harvard 0.55
155 Denver 0.55
156 Siena 0.55
157 Green Bay 0.54
158 Houston Baptist 0.54
159 UTEP 0.53
160 Loyola (IL) 0.53
161 Monmouth 0.52
162 Weber St. 0.51
163 Miami (OH) 0.50
164 Wagner 0.50
165 Wake Forest 0.50
166 Winthrop 0.49
167 Charleston Southern 0.48
168 Evansville 0.48
169 Indiana St. 0.47
170 UC Davis 0.45
171 San Diego 0.45
172 DePaul 0.45
173 Canisius 0.42
174 Colgate 0.42
175 Valparaiso 0.41
176 Coastal Carolina 0.41
177 St. Bonaventure 0.41
178 North Carolina St. 0.40
179 Idaho 0.40
180 UNC Wilmington 0.40
181 Western Michigan 0.39
182 Southern 0.39
183 Saint Louis 0.39
184 IPFW 0.38
185 Northwestern 0.37
186 Sacramento St. 0.36
187 Pepperdine 0.34
188 Santa Clara 0.34
189 Temple 0.33
190 Texas Tech 0.33
191 William & Mary 0.32
192 Prairie View A&M 0.32
193 Arkansas St. 0.32
194 Dartmouth 0.31
195 Akron 0.30
196 UT Arlington 0.29
197 Morehead St. 0.29
198 South Florida 0.29
199 La Salle 0.28
200 Penn St. 0.28
201 Alabama St. 0.28
202 Massachusetts 0.27
203 Colorado St. 0.27
204 Tulane 0.27
205 Western Kentucky 0.27
206 North Texas 0.25
207 Chicago St. 0.24
208 VMI 0.24
209 Texas St. 0.23
210 St. Francis U 0.22
211 Lamar 0.20
212 St. Francis (NY) 0.20
213 Stony Brook 0.19
214 Cal St. Northridge 0.19
215 Southern Miss 0.19
216 New Orleans 0.19
217 St. Joseph’s 0.19
218 Jacksonville St. 0.18
219 Oakland 0.17
220 Chattanooga 0.17
221 Belmont 0.17
222 Manhattan 0.16
223 Cornell 0.16
224 Nevada 0.15
225 Albany 0.15
226 Boston University 0.15
227 Texas A&M-CC 0.15
228 Cleveland St. 0.13
229 Eastern Washington 0.13
230 Omaha 0.13
231 Northern Illinois 0.12
232 Bethune-Cookman 0.12
233 Oklahoma St. 0.11
234 Northern Arizona 0.11
235 UC Irvine 0.11
236 LIU Brooklyn 0.11
237 Hofstra 0.10
238 Charlotte 0.09
239 Montana St. 0.09
240 UT Martin 0.09
241 Mississippi 0.09
242 Bowling Green 0.08
243 Troy 0.08
244 Miami (FL) 0.07
245 Western Carolina 0.07
246 IUPUI 0.06
247 Central Michigan 0.06
248 Niagara 0.05
249 Rice 0.05
250 Navy 0.05
251 Grand Canyon 0.04
252 Furman 0.04
253 Towson 0.03
254 George Mason 0.03
255 Providence 0.03
256 North Carolina A&T 0.02
257 Air Force 0.01
258 Buffalo 0.01
259 Pennsylvania 0.01
260 Robert Morris -0.01
261 Lehigh -0.02
262 Cal St. Bakersfield -0.02
263 ETSU -0.02
264 Wofford -0.06
265 St. John’s -0.06
266 Eastern Illinois -0.06
267 Jacksonville -0.08
268 Appalachian St. -0.09
269 Hampton -0.09
270 Bucknell -0.09
271 Portland St. -0.10
272 South Carolina St. -0.10
273 USC Upstate -0.10
274 Alcorn St. -0.11
275 Northeastern -0.11
276 Stephen F. Austin -0.11
277 Pacific -0.11
278 NJIT -0.13
279 Kent St. -0.13
280 Marist -0.15
281 Norfolk St. -0.15
282 Samford -0.16
283 Utah St. -0.18
284 Binghamton -0.18
285 Sam Houston St. -0.19
286 Stetson -0.19
287 Tennessee St. -0.20
288 UNC Greensboro -0.20
289 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -0.21
290 UTSA -0.21
291 High Point -0.24
292 Loyola Marymount -0.25
293 Lipscomb -0.26
294 Incarnate Word -0.27
295 Bryant -0.27
296 Charleston -0.28
297 FIU -0.28
298 Austin Peay -0.29
299 South Dakota -0.29
300 Liberty -0.30
301 Radford -0.30
302 UALR -0.35
303 Milwaukee -0.35
304 Kennesaw St. -0.36
305 UC Santa Barbara -0.36
306 Presbyterian -0.36
307 South Alabama -0.37
308 Lafayette -0.39
309 Campbell -0.43
310 Delaware -0.43
311 Southeast Missouri St. -0.43
312 James Madison -0.46
313 Fairfield -0.48
314 Loyola (MD) -0.49
315 Citadel -0.50
316 UMES -0.54
317 SE Louisiana -0.55
318 Mississippi Valley St. -0.55
319 Rider -0.55
320 San Jose St. -0.55
321 Utah Valley -0.57
322 Abilene Christian -0.57
323 UIC -0.57
324 New Hampshire -0.58
325 Fairleigh Dickinson -0.59
326 Northwestern St. -0.63
327 Nicholls St. -0.68
328 Idaho St. -0.69
329 North Dakota -0.70
330 Florida Atlantic -0.73
331 Central Connecticut St. -0.74
332 UMBC -0.75
333 American -0.76
334 Gardner-Webb -0.77
335 Army -0.78
336 Sacred Heart -0.82
337 Drexel -0.82
338 Delaware St. -0.83
339 Florida A&M -0.85
340 Central Arkansas -0.88
341 Morgan St. -0.88
342 Elon -0.89
343 Longwood -0.92
344 Hartford -0.93
345 Massachusetts Lowell -1.10
346 Maine -1.11
347 Youngstown St. -1.17
348 UT Rio Grande Valley -1.22
349 Southern Utah -1.29
350 Coppin St. -1.34
351 Grambling St. -1.36
Advertisements